Description: The Wind, a major alternative source of energy, provides dynamic output due to frequent weather changes, which introduces one of the biggest challenges in integrating it with the existing power system. Commercial wind power forecasters vary in their prediction accuracies both across the wind farms and for different time periods within a farm. Therefore, the wind power generators (WPGs) employ multiple such forecasters and heuristically choose day-ahead-prediction from one of them (baseline model).
In this work, we combine multiple forecasters to generate a superforecast for the day-ahead-prediction which is, expected to be better than individual forecasters regarding penalty – the cost a WPG has to pay for inaccurate predictions. Performance evaluation using six months of SCADA and forecaster data, from a WPG, of a wind farm located in India, shows that superforecast reduced the penalty by 7% and 13% when compared with the least penalized forecaster for each month and the baseline model.
Milan Jain, Amarjeet Singh, “Poster Abstract: Combining Multiple Forecast for Improved Day Ahead Prediction of Wind Power Generation”, Proceedings of the ACM Sixth International Conference on Future Energy Systems (e-Energy 2015) held at Bangalore, India. [ACM][Preprint]
Published by Milan Jain
"Technology is nothing. What's important is that you have faith in people, that they're basically good and smart, and if you give them tools, they will do wonderful things with them" - Steve Jobs. We are here to design technology that assists people, not to replace them. Today, we are surrounded by the sensors which are generating an enormous amount of information. While this giant pool of data can learn a lot about human behavior, with the right intent, data and technology together can genuinely benefit the people. If data can identify that a person is under stress, technology should provide a way to reduce that stress. I am a data science researcher and primarily works at the intersection of data science and smart homes. Being a researcher, I keep exploring novel and innovative ways to make homes energy efficient, comfortable, and sustainable.
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